Topline
The National Retail Federation predicts that holiday spending will top $1 trillion this year for the first time ever despite challenges like heightened economic uncertainty, inflation and increased prices because of tariffs, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said Thursday.
Shoppers with festive shopping bags on Dec. 4, 2024.
In Pictures via Getty Images
Key Facts
Shay said holiday spending, taking place between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, is expected to rise 3.7% to 4.2% over last year’s spending of $976 billion, which was up 4.3% over 2023.
He said consumers are more price sensitive than they’ve ever been and are thinking more deliberately about price comparisons when shopping, but that overall consumer behavior is still positive.
NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said more people are holding out for Black Friday and other holiday sales this year than in years past.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
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Tangent
Shay added that extra pressure on retailers and rising business costs could mean the lowest seasonal hiring level in the last 15 years, with between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers expected to be hired. His sentiments echo those of several other recent reports that also estimate holiday hiring could fall to decade-low levels this year. Career services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas says companies have so far announced plans to hire about 375,000 seasonal employees, the lowest number of seasonal hires announced by November since Challenger began tracking in 2012.